49ers' Smith shows his leadership
Football Betting Lines
12/20/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Everyone was as sure as Pacific Northwest rainfall that Seattle would avenge an early-season defeat against the 49ers last Thursday, and in the process clinch the NFC West.
But Alex Smith had a different idea.
Smith shook off the Seahawks and the rain with three fourth-quarter touchdowns in San Francisco's 24-14 win over Seattle on the primetime stage. The signal- caller has been up and down all year, but put together an impressive comeback for his resume.
Trailing 7-3, Smith engineered a 90-play drive to put his team ahead early in the fourth. Backed up at his own 13, he hooked up with Arnaz Battle for a 53- yard completion. He then put the Niners up when he found rookie tight end Vernon Davis in the end zone from eight yards out.
However, it was Smith's second TD toss that was most impressive.
After a big defensive stop on fourth down by San Francisco's defense, Smith guided his squad to the 15. After a delay of game call, Seattle corner Kelly Herndon seemed about ready to level Smith and post a big sack. Smith, though, shook off and avoided Herndon. He then rolled to his left and hit the 49ers' other young rising star, Frank Gore, for a touchdown pass that made it a two- possession lead with just over four minutes to go.
"I knew that the plays were there to be made and I was capable of making them," Smith said. "It was just a matter of getting going and hitting some things and getting some momentum."
Smith later capped his big quarter with an 18-yard touchdown run.
"He stayed the course throughout the entire game," 49ers head coach Mike Nolan said of Smith. "That was really important. He didn't vary from that. He didn't try to force balls. He just played a good game. It was in spurts, but he did play a good game."
The second-year signal caller needed a game like this. And lucky for him, it came in a nationally-televised game.
Smith's growing pains this season had been obvious. He came out of the gate firing, but suffered through a brutal November. He rebounded slightly two weeks ago against Green Bay, but had by far his most complete game in a while against Seattle.
The Utah product threw for just 162 yards -- in the rain, mind you -- but in addition to factoring in on three TDs, he completed 56 percent of his passes and wasn't picked off.
"I do believe that Alex has good toughness. He's a bright guy who knows football," Nolan said. "You don't have to teach him things more than once. You tell him and he pretty much gets it. You may have to remind him from time to time, but he's very resilient."
At 6-8, the 49ers are still mathematically in both the Wild Card and division title hunt. However, they still trail the Seahawks (8-6) by a pair of games with two to play and are among five 6-8 teams that trail two 7-7 teams for the final Wild Card spot.
It seemingly would take a lot for the 49ers to get in, but if they don't reach the postseason, they have a couple of games they can really look back on this season as stepping stones.
"This is definitely something we can continue to build on," said defensive end Bryant Young. "This just shows you, when we don't shoot ourselves in the foot, this is what happens. If we continue to build on what we've been able to accomplish with the victories and everything, the sky's the limit for us."
49ERS GETTING IN SEAHAWKS' HEADS
The win last Thursday gave the 49ers their first series sweep of the Seahawks since 2002, the first year of realignment. That's important for the club if it wishes to be contenders in the division.
The 49ers also did another good job of shutting down Seattle running back Shaun Alexander. Last year's MVP ran for just 37 yards in San Fran's 20-14 home win over Seattle on November 19. That performance was Alexander's first since suffering the foot injury that caused him to miss a nice chunk of the season.
Thursday, he rushed for 73 yards a score. However, he managed just 16 yards in the second half.
Gore, meanwhile, enjoyed another successful game against the division rival. He rushed for 144 yards and turned in his first career touchdown reception. Gore ran for a total of 356 yards in two games against the Seahawks.
The Miami-Florida product earned his eighth 100-yard game of the season.
Also, Battle set a career-high with 97 yards receiving.
LOSING HEITMANN
The 49ers weren't all smiles after their win, as the club learned it will be without center Eric Heitmann for the rest of the season.
Heitmann broke his right tibia in the first quarter when Seattle defensive end Darryl Tapp rolled onto his leg during a block. The fifth-year pro had to have a rod inserted into his leg. The injury will bring an end to his consecutive start steak, which stood at 45.
Nolan said he thinks recovery time for Heitmann is 12-to-14 weeks.
"Eric is an instrumental part of our offense and everything we do," Nolan said on Friday. "He is the center. We lose him, which is unfortunate. It won't be career-ending. He'll be back, but not this year, not this season."
Nolan said on Monday that he thinks Tony Wragge -- who replaced Heitmann against Seattle -- will start the 49ers' next game. However, he will try to work in David Baas as well.
"For right now Tony has been in there for the reps that he has gotten and there is definitely no disappointment in David Baas," said Nolan. "I am very anxious to get David in there because he is a gamer and he plays well. For right now, Tony has been in the middle and I think he has more NFL game experience than David has right now, and the calls that go with it."
In other injury news, Nolan said on Monday that tackle Adam Snyder, tight end Eric Johnson and linebacker Derek Smith are all questionable for Sunday, but he hopes all three will be able to play.
In good news, cornerback Shawntae Spencer returned to the lineup against Seattle after missing the last three games. Spencer had been sidelined with an ankle injury, and recorded his first interception of the season in the win.
NEXT UP: SHUFFLING THE CARDS
The 49ers will seek to avenge a Week 1 loss to the Cardinals on Sunday.
Then-Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner threw for 301 yards and three touchdowns in the 34-27 season-opening win that christened the Cardinals' new stadium. San Francisco will get its first look at Matt Leinart, who has since replaced Warner as Arizona's quarterback.
Gore rushed for 87 yards and scored twice in the loss, the 49ers third straight to the Cardinals. Smith threw for 288 yards and a touchdown.
San Francisco is 17-13-0 all-time against the Cardinals.
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NFL Football Betting
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?
Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite. Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight. With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites. As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).
Midwest
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler
The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April. Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT. After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games. Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season. As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers. Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS). Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field. With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV
As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year. If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season. As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well. This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons. Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late. There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games. It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.
East
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown
“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season. Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU. They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games. With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field. Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense. Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc. The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range. Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.
#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC
The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country. Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times. Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter. UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen. UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS. An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games. This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS. USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types. An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough. USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS. They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12. When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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